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To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. As recently as a few years ago, the movie-review aggregator was seen as something of an industry bogeyman. But is there a correlation between box office receipts and a high or low score on the Tomatometer? We dug deep into the numbers to determine that. The last time a Nolan-directed movie hit theaters, in , Hollywood was facing what in pre-pandemic times struck some unsuspecting studio executives as an existential threat.
By the standards of summers when domestic movie theaters were actually open, mid was a tough time for the movie industry. Yet a few days after the Times piece was published, a counter-narrative emerged. By the end of , box office grosses were down only 2. In fact, our analysis reveals that Rotten Tomatoes scores are reliably correlated with box office performance, especially for certain genres. To study the potential link between the box office and Rotten Tomatoes, we gathered budget and box office data for almost 5, movies dating back to and joined it to genre and Rotten Tomatoes score information from the Open Movie Database.
Our first finding is that the average Rotten Tomatoes critic score has increased over time. After a study discovered that more than three-quarters of reviewers aggregated by Rotten Tomatoes were male and more than 80 percent were white, the site pledged to make its sample more inclusive, partly by approving critics on an individual basis rather than rubber-stamping certain publications, and also by incorporating podcasters and YouTubers in addition to written reviews.
Over the next year, the site said , it added more than new critics, the majority of whom were women. Average Rotten Tomatoes scores vary by budget and genre, and lumping all movies together may obscure meaningful, critic-driven differences in earnings within one genre or within a budgetary range.
To account for those confounding factors, we used a generalized additive model, adjusting for budget and genre broken down into action, comedy, horror, and drama.
If a movie was classified as belonging to multiple genres, such as action and comedy, it counted in both buckets. The chart below, which adjusts for budget and genre, shows that on the whole, Rotten Tomatoes scores are associated with higher profit margins budgets subtracted from box office totals , especially at the extremes. That relationship varies dramatically by genre. Events depicted include cattle theft, bank robbery, and attempted train derailment.
It premiered on December 26, , in Melbourne's Athenaeum Hall, to general delirium. A day later came the world's first proper feature-film review, which Ryan tracked down in a digitized version of the Melbourne paper The Age. From the review:. So Ryan checked out Sydney's Daily Telegraph, where he found world movie review number two.
Then, years after they were first published and immediately forgotten, the reviews were uploaded to Rotten Tomatoes. View Iframe URL. Strange as it is , a website that evaluates films via cartoon tomatoes might be the closest thing our fractured, post-gatekeeper culture has to an arbiter of good taste.
The site's Tomatometer has become, as one early employee put it, a Good Housekeeping Seal for visual entertainment. Red means good, green means bad. Once a movie has five reviews, it is Tomatometer-eligible. For example, when John Travolta's mobster biopic Gotti generated a 0 percent rating, it meant that literally none of the 55 critics who appraised the film had any remotely warm feelings about it.
If a movie generates a 59 percent or lower, it's Rotten. Sixty percent or higher, it's Fresh. The site's founder has said he landed on the name Rotten Tomatoes while watching a movie called Leolo , about a boy who thinks he was conceived when an Italian peasant fell into a cart of semen-covered tomatoes. Of course the name more straightforwardly evokes the supposed old-time practice of hurling fruit at unsatisfactory stage performers. In that spirit, the site also offers a second, more Yelp-like rating called the Audience Score, determined by hundreds of thousands of Rotten Tomatoes users who grade movies from 0.
Tim Ryan's maximalist archival project befits the growth of the site. Founded in by Berkeley postgrads who wanted to rate Jackie Chan movies, Rotten Tomatoes matured into a powerhouse by proving its usefulness to corporate America.
Steve Jobs, an early evangelist, name-checked the site during his keynote presentations. In it was bought by Flixster, which was bought the following year by corporate overlord Warner Bros. Now, when you browse for showtimes on Fandango, which is the country's dominant ticket seller, you'll see a Tomatometer beside each release. For studios, the Tomatometer has become a ubiquitous marketing tool, while news coverage of the scores has become its own odd internet subgenre.
As the site's influence grew, it inevitably led to a reckoning. In producers started blaming low scores for the dismal performance of expensive summer fare—like the Baywatch reboot and the latest terrible Pirates of the Caribbean installment.
Casual conspiracy theorists, meanwhile, imagined that Rotten Tomatoes intentionally goosed movie scores according to the wishes of studio bosses. While there is no evidence that curators can be bought, the site's Audience Score is definitely corruptible. In late and early , it fell prey to a trolling epidemic, as bigoted male comic book fans appeared to bull-rush the site to take down the audience score of superhero movies, like Black Panther and Captain Marvel , whose stars they deemed unacceptably black or female.
All of a sudden, along with the rest of the internet, Rotten Tomatoes was not to be trusted. The crowds were not wise. Still, there is an authoritative allure in the site's numerical scores. As a Rotten Tomatoes user, I reflexively—and nonsensically—trust a Fresh 60 percent Tomatometer over a Rotten 59 percent. Yet the numbers themselves, as I found, can be close to meaningless. And it raises the question: What's the best way to choose?
Or, more to the point, who do you trust? Rotten Tomatoes' office, which it shares with the larger Fandango staff, has a Silicon Valley feel. Walls you can write on. Walls you can remove. Pods, booths, nooks. The orange of Fandango's logo everywhere.
But this meeting felt less startup and more extremely random J-school seminar. The meeting works like this: Curators submit articles that may or may not be reviews, and the room decides if they are. That's it. Rotten Tomatoes will not consider reported features, tweets, or—to its eternal credit—recaps. Today's submissions include a Guardian piece on 30 Rock 's overreliance on celebrity guests, a rambling discussion on a culture podcast, and a Entertainment Weekly piece about the short-lived daytime program The Bonnie Hunt Show.
All were swiftly labeled nonreviews. Robert Fowler, a TV curator, laid out the problem. In this case, I think it's kind of a byproduct of a very established television critic maybe being a little bored by his subject matter. Nobody could tell. Meetings like this are crucial to maintaining Tomatometer integrity. Few contemplate this more than Jeff Giles.
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